First Handicapping Post

Update: So, in a small twist of fate tinged with irony, in making this blog post I sort of cut into my handicap time. I was going to write a quick post up on my tablet saying I'm posting my picks today. The post got a bit bigger than that, and into what goes on behind the scenes of public handicapper's, my initial take on some of the races, and a little bit more. So most of my picks will posted to twitter @the_horses_shoe
 
So I'm finally putting it out there. Cutting my chops. I'm making my first public picks today. Sort of. I'm going to be handicapping today and doing my best to put some picks up through twitter @the_horses_shoe. These aren't my first public picks though, they are my first picks posted for the public. That sentence doesn't sound like it makes much sense but there is a reality to it.

That's a fact lost on some people when they read a handicap analysis of a card. Professional Handicappers, the guys who cap for DRF or Xpressbets, are in a tough position when making picks for the website. The have to post picks that are on the safer side, more logical. They certainly have to be able to explain and back up their picks in confidence. Steven Crist actually discusses his own process and approach to a Kentucky Derby or Belmont Stakes one year in a blog post. He talks about how he felt a certain way about certain horses that he couldn't justify putting out to the public. Why not? Because if those horses get beat by the contender that makes the most sense, the justifiable choice, he isn't doing his job as a professional handicapper. 

Handicappers are giving you an analysis of the card with the most logical winners as selections. What they aren't doing is necessarily giving you good wagers. Occasionally they'll go out on a limb to beat one of the favorites with a decent priced horse but more often than not they don't go for that play. The play that they might be doing in private. It isn't some grand conspiracy against horse players. It just makes sense. What they might be willing to wager or take a chance on isn't really what they should be suggesting people take a chance on. They are supposed to analyze the card and decide on the most logical winners.

That's why, particularly in the beginning (and i'll do my best to maintain it), this blog is going to be a real treat. I'll be posting my picks. I need to give a shout out to Steven Crist on this too, he does make his pick 6 (and consequently the pick 4, especially if he is knocked out of the P6) selections public and blogs about the races as they go recommending whether or not to apply remaining picks to the P4 if possible. Anyway sorry for the tangent but the blog will be my picks. What I'm wagering is a more apt description. I'm also going to delve into my process, my justifications, and some of the stuff I've read and am rereading in other posts. For the most part though my posts on my picks are going to be my picks. They are going to be what I'm wagering. Admittedly it is a little tricky and pretty much impossible to accommodate for the tote board's changes and the live odds that may sway a play or justify another. That's what twitter is for. Follow me @the_horses_shoe exclusively for live, up-to-the-minute picks.

Now that this blog post took way more time than I planned, let me finish up my handicapping and put together some quick posts with my plays. Honestly, today, I decided to handicap Gulfstream at the last minute, with good reason though. I highly recommend handicapping the night before if you want to take this sport seriously. If you are a casual player obviously that is not nearly as important. I woke up this morning though to an email from ECHR. That's the East Coast Handicapping Report. I've subscribed to it in the past and occasionally purchase single days from them. I highly recommend this handicapping report. It's honest, admits a bad race when it sees one, gives factual data on its ROI and sometimes mails you a report for free. It is a rare instance where I feel like I'm receiving a professional handicapper's personal picks. THey are great picks too. Like any handicapping report you come across use it with your own handicapping. Don't just blindly follow it. I've had great success though working his selections in with my own. I woke up to one of the free reports from ECHR today and decided to handicap Gulfstream. So it is admittedly last minute, and I've definitely cut into my handicapping because of this post now too. Normally I'd handicap the card the night before and make adjustments the day of. So we'll see how much I actually get to posting today, you'll probably catch most of my picks on twitter today since they will be decided close to post time.

Thankfully we are passing on the first race though and possibly the second depending on the tote board. We are definitely looking at the 3rd, 4th, and 5th races. I'm still not sure how I feel about the 6th, it seems a bit too open (too many possible winners, perhaps another to be decided by the odds). The 7th looks chalky (the favorites will probably win) and won't be one to make much money off. We'll have to see the tote board for the 7th and maybe there will be a decent exacta or trifecta play, I haven't delved that deep yet though. The 8th is another chalky type situation with a couple threats that will draw money too. What's that mean? It probably won't be a race to make a good profit on. In other words not a worthwhile wager. Those are the kind of wagers that I'd recommend if you are at the track, playing casually, and just want to "win." If you are looking to make any serious money, you won't find it in the chalk (there is potential for exotic wagers with the chalk but there's more potential in exotic wagers that beat the chalk). There's definitely potential to use some of these chalky types in the Rainbow Pick 6 though. The 9th looks like there might be some potential. No one stands out too much but out of a poor group you can sometimes catch a horse at a great price. The 10th has some potential for a decent exacta play. That's always contingent on post time odds though. If the public catches on to your 2nd horse in the exacta, then you're screwed.

The later races I have to handicap a bit more so some of these early analysis are apt to change. You never know how the public is going to play and that's what parimutuel wagering is. Wagering against one another, not the house. And maybe at the end of day that's why people don't put up there personal wagers because ultimately we are competing against one another. Well screw that, I'm here to share. I'll see what I can post up here today but look for most of my picks today on twitter @the_horses_shoe. 

This blog post really cut into my handicapping time, that was already a last minute decision to do it anyway. So I'm mostly playing the tote board today. If anything really jumps out early on though I'll make sure it's up here otherwise @the_horses_shoe for the rest.

Best of luck. And for those of you in Florida, enjoy the weather.

Also forgive me, since I'm now tight on time with my handicapping I only quickly spell checked this post, so give me a pass, I got work to do! 

Last week I won a little over $100 on a horse race. Now for most people this is a big deal. For me? Not so much. It isn't the first time I've had a decent win nor will it be the last. What made this one special though, it was with the last 8 bucks in my wagering account.

From August to October of last year I was relying on horse racing, and my winnings from handicapping, as my primary income. I'm a decent handicapper. I had started with a base capital of $250. With every win I withdrew the winnings and left $250 in my account. I played till it ran out. That's where the $8 came in. I thought of waiting till I found a play to make. The thing about doing that, and handicapping in general, is that it would be an insane time commitment finding that one play. A diligence above the harsh norm already required. So I took my winnings and cut my losses. I hung up my brief handicapping career at the end of October.

Last Thursday, since I had been a bit more flush recently, I deposited some money back into my account with the intent of playing casually. I added $75. I wasn't going to play Thursday, having not fully prepared, but had received a free handicapping report that I occasionally purchase. I forgot which race it was at Aqueduct, maybe the 6th but I did decide to make a wager. Not because I couldn't resist making a wager with some extra money to burn but because I'd be a fool not to.

It was a textbook play. Quite literally. Straight from the book. It was actually one of the last bits I read in the most recent handicapping book I delved into. It was a maiden claiming race, a race for horses who have yet to win. This class of horses is near the bottom of the rung in all of horse racing. Especially if it is a cheap claiming price, which equates to cheaply priced horses since they can be bought before the race for said claiming price.

Out of the horses running a couple would have been smart but not well paying bets. Safe bets. "Chalk" bets as handicappers call them. One horse, one very un-bet horse, stood out. He had run one race, a Maiden Special Weight (MSW). It's one step up for horses who have never won. These are horses that show a bit more promise. The future Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes horses run here. This horse ran one MSW, showed some early speed but didn't have a spectacular finish. He was benched for a month or so and brought into Thursday's race. And he was overlooked by the gambling public.

This is what makes someone a great handicapper. They find the wagers the public doesn't. The horse was going off at 42-1. A MSW horse dropping to Maiden Claiming is a classic "class drop" to look for in horse racing but usually is only acknowledged as positive if the horse has a bit more to show than this particular horse's lackluster one race. Except that if you paid attention a bit more closely you would notice it wasn't so lackluster. He showed some speed, and this was his second start, he was almost guaranteed to improve, like all horses do their second time out. I had read about finding this kind of horse and how the public generally overlooks him. I was looking at the exact situation described in my textbook (for lack of a better term).

So I took those last $8 and made a play, just to see if I could have brought myself back without my additional deposit. That was my only mistake. The horse finished second behind one of the safer favorites and my exacta gave me a $100 boost to my wagering account balance. And now I'm back. Time to give handicapping another shot, because I'm good at it and I love it. I love the sport, I love the thrill, I love the challenge of deciphering/handicapping a race card, I love the simplicity in my preparation and reading paying off and I love being good at it. But now you'll share in it. In my next little ride. I'll be posting some picks and how I feel about some results.I'll be posting both success and failure, both due to luck and skill. Most of all, hopefully, we'll see how much fun it is and ideally maybe I'll win a couple new fans of horse racing (and handicapping).

Alright so this is a bit twisted. Creativity at work, eh? Yeah well, if you're easily offended I strongly recommend you stop reading here.

Aww, I'm just playing. This little project is going to cover food, horse racing, current events, philosophy, fiction, what you should be reading, and hopefully, ideally, will get you thinking. Some of it will offend and some of it will enlighten. Most of it, hopefully, will be interesting.  

This is my parlay while I work on getting the full version of a few independent, dedicated websites started. I figured it'd be fun to give it a start now. No need to wait, right? So that's what this blog is. A combination of a couple blogs I'm starting, that are being worked on, and will go live soon. This is the hold over, the soft opening. Most of all though, this is me. This is me, doing what I should be doing. Writing.